NFL passing touchdowns props: how to research the number

A passing touchdowns prop counts the touchdown passes thrown by one quarterback, with the total commonly set at 1.5 or 2.5 and each side priced with its own margin. A touchdown pass is credited to the passer even if the receiver runs a long way after the catch. Touchdowns a quarterback scores himself on the ground do not count. Overtime generally counts, and the rule for a starter who does not play varies by operator, so read the terms.

Settlement rules to check

• Expected team scoring

  Touchdown passes are a share of the points a team scores. Take the team total implied by the spread and the game total, then split it between drives that end in field goals, rushing touchdowns and touchdown passes.

• Red-zone play calling

  Inside the twenty, some staffs throw quickly while others pound the ball or use the quarterback on sneaks. A team that stays on the ground near the goal line can drive well and still leave its passer short of a total.

• Quarterback runs

  A mobile quarterback who scores himself removes one touchdown from the passing tally. Check how often the offense calls designed runs near the goal line, since each one trades a passing touchdown for a rushing one.

• Who catches the scores

  Tall tight ends and big-bodied receivers are often the red-zone targets, and their absence changes the plan. Check injuries to the players who normally finish drives, not only to the receivers who produce yards between the twenties.

• Defensive finishing

  A defense that concedes yards between the twenties but stiffens near the end zone holds down touchdown passes even if the quarterback piles up yardage. Read red-zone results next to yards allowed.

• Weather and game state

  Wind, rain and cold nudge offenses toward field goals and the run. A blowout can also bring the starter out before the third or fourth touchdown that would have cleared a higher total.

1. 1Gather the quarterback's touchdown passes and red-zone attempts for recent games and note which came on short fields.
2. 2Read the implied team total and break it into likely touchdowns and field goals before thinking about passes.
3. 3Check which pass catchers are active, especially the tall receivers and tight ends who work near the goal line.
4. 4Study how the offense plays inside the ten-yard line, including quarterback runs and handoffs to the lead back.
5. 5Review the forecast and the opposing defense's red-zone results as inputs to your touchdown distribution.
6. 6Price each side against its break-even probability, remembering that with small totals one play can decide the result.

• Equating yards with scores

  A quarterback can throw for a lot of yards and still score rarely if drives stall in field-goal range. A passing yards read is not a shortcut to a touchdown total.

• Borrowing a different offense

  Touchdown totals from a stretch with another receiver group or play caller say little about this week. Weight the games that most resemble the current personnel.

• Forgetting a lopsided finish

  If a game turns into a rout, the starter may sit before the late score that would have cleared a line. Check whether the staff pulls starters in comfortable leads.