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Expected Value Calculator for Sports Betting
By DeepChamp research team · Updated · Methods and limitations
Short answer
Expected value is the average amount a bet would win or lose per stake if you could repeat it many times. Enter the odds, your estimated probability and your stake to see it. The result is only as good as the estimate you enter.
Expected value calculator
For example -110 or +150.
Your own estimate that the bet wins.
| Break-even probability | 52.38%at -110 |
|---|---|
| Your estimate | 55.00% |
| Gap against break-even | +2.62 points |
| Profit if it wins | $90.91 |
| Expected value | $5.00average per bet, if your estimate is right |
| Expected value per unit staked | 5.00% |
The result is only as reliable as your probability estimate. A gap of a point or two can disappear if the estimate is slightly wrong.
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Download on the App StoreHow to use it
- 1Enter the American odds of the side you are considering.
- 2Enter your own estimate of the chance the outcome happens, as a percentage.
- 3Enter a stake to see the result in currency, or use 100 to read it as a percentage of the stake.
- 4Compare your estimate with the break-even probability, then ask how wrong the estimate could be before the result flips.
How the math works
Expected value combines two numbers: what you win if the bet hits and what you lose if it does not, each weighted by its probability. A positive result means that, if your probability were exactly right and the bet could be repeated many times, the average result would be a gain.
In practice the estimate carries most of the uncertainty. A small gap between your probability and the break-even probability can vanish if your estimate is off by a point or two, and short runs of results say very little about whether an estimate was good.
- Profit if the bet wins
- profit = stake x (decimal - 1)
- Expected value
- EV = p x profit - (1 - p) x stake
- Break-even probability
- break-even = 1 / decimal
Common questions
How do you calculate expected value in sports betting?
Multiply the profit if the bet wins by your estimated probability, then subtract the stake multiplied by the probability of losing. Dividing by the stake gives the expected value per unit wagered.
Does a positive expected value mean the bet will win?
No. A single bet still wins or loses, and a positive expected value describes an average over many repeats under the assumption that your probability is right. The estimate itself is usually the weakest part.
Where does the probability estimate come from?
From your own research or a model, not from the odds. If you use the fair price from the market itself, the expected value is close to zero by construction, so a difference only appears when you have a view that differs from the market.
This is educational research content. Examples use hypothetical numbers and are not live odds, picks, or claims about performance.
21+ for U.S. sports betting. Follow the laws and age requirements where you are. DeepChamp AI provides independent sports betting research and analysis. It does not accept or place wagers, hold customer funds for betting, or operate a sportsbook. No wins or profits are guaranteed. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit the National Council on Problem Gambling. Outbound product links from this page connect exclusively to Apple’s licensed App Store listing for DeepChamp AI. DeepChamp AI does not link to unlicensed gambling operators.